When the butterfly shakes the oak

“Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?” That was the radical question posed by US mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz in his 1972 lecture to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. 

Over half a century later we are now witnessing the full and baffling force of “chaos theory” – how tiny variations in initial conditions can lead to wildly different outcomes across complex systems; outcomes that still challenge even the most sophisticated climate modelling. On the ground, meanwhile, the interconnectedness of our economies and societies further compounds that complexity for international development. 

Anthropogenic global warming is clearly linear, but the knock-on effects for our climate are anything but. As we see in our tipping points story, the greening of the African Sahel may sound positive but could trigger feedback loops – particularly for the West African monsoon system. The northern expansion of Boreal forests may sound positive, but thawing permafrost could release hundreds of gigatonnes of greenhouse gases. 

What was previously unimaginable has already in some ways come to pass. Parts of the Amazon rainforest, “the lungs of the Earth,” have become net carbon emitters, as we see in our story on page 18. Once mighty glaciers from the Swiss Alps to the Peruvian Andes are “retreating,” often predictably but sometimes suddenly and dangerously. And even the hardiest of Mediterranean olive trees are in danger. 

The world as we know it is changing fast and perhaps irrevocably. Yet many argue that we still have time to turn our vulnerabilities into strengths by facing the crosswinds arm in arm. When naysayers ask: “What is the point of yet another climate conference?” - one response is that the UN still has a plan in the form of the Paris Agreement. Yes, the world is warming fast, but renewables are clearly gaining ground and the energy transition has a momentum all of its own, as we hear in our interview with IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera. 

Meanwhile the spirit of mutirão (a Brazilian term for “collective effort”) remains strong ahead of the COP30 meeting in Belém. That sentiment has a long pedigree, covering an entire generation of climate activists and concerned policymakers, including the UAE’s chief climate negotiator from COP28. A self-confessed “stubborn optimist,” Hana AlHashimi gives us the inside story on the road from Dubai to Baku to Belém, including latenight talks on the landmark Loss and Damage Fund.

Equally bullish is Anthony Bartzokas, founding director of the International Economics and Development Laboratory at the University of Athens. He urges all sides to stop obsessing about “the trillions that are missing” and focus instead on what steps are needed to scale up the global energy transition – from systematic knowledge sharing to investing in trade finance to empowering central banks in the credit ratings process. 

The road to climate justice may be long and winding, but so is development itself, according to our book review. A Modern Guide to Uneven Economic Development takes us on a postcolonial tour of economic theory, policy and practice, covering everything from poverty in Iran’s oil-rich Khuzestan province to the inexorable rise of South Korea, an economy built on steel, cars and electronics that grew 125,000 percent from 1955 to 2025. 

“Mighty oaks from little acorns grow” is an old English proverb that captures the metaphorical (and sometimes literal) strength of complex systems, be they Asian economies or American ecosystems. Every year for more than a millennium, tornadoes and hurricanes have shaken “Big Tree” on Goose Island on the border between Texas and Louisiana – and every year for over a thousand years that oak has weathered the storm thanks to its network of gnarly roots. 

Whatever happens in Brazil this November may be complex, chaotic and connect us in ways we cannot yet fathom, but a stubborn collective optimism seems our best bet for survival. Read on for our roadmap to mutirão.