The inside story

The climate process has demonstrated that multilateralism can work through landmark achievements such as the Paris Agreement in 2015 (COP21), the UAE Consensus (COP28) and the Baku Climate Unity Pact (COP29). This journey will continue in November at COP30 in Brazil, reflecting a global commitment to collective action. 

Still, developing countries stand at the crossroads of a complex global geopolitical landscape, economic challenges, mounting debt and increasingly severe climate crises. As we pass the two-thirds mark of the Sustainable Development Goals timeline and fall ever further behind in meeting our targets, there is a clear need for global leadership, unity and determination to achieve the future we want. 

My experience as a negotiator has shown me that behind every plenary session and late-night negotiation, there is a human story of determination by people for people. It’s a story of shared purpose, difficult compromises and a stubborn optimism that, together, we can build a better future. 

COP28 - The UAE Consensus and the Roadmap to Mission 1.5 

In 2023 the UAE Consensus and the first Global Stocktake (GST) presented a comprehensive “report card” on collective progress toward the goals of the Paris Agreement, and - more importantly - a collective “roadmap” to achieve these goals over the next decade, covering all three pillars of climate action: mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation. 

The COP28 Presidency, led by the UAE’s Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, demonstrated that a strong collective outcome requires political will from all 198 Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Our presidency’s approach was to engage all sectors – public, private and civic – in a global dialogue to jointly shape a successful outcome that would leave nobody behind. 

That is where the human story shone through, and what defined COP28 as a “movement” rather than merely an “event.” After a year of intense engagement and dialogue, the energy and interest of parties and partners in a strong outcome was palpable. This was clearest to me when, after the global media had written about the opening of COP28 that it “could have been worse,” delegates retorted vehemently to defend the timely adoption of the agenda and the Loss and Damage Fund’s operationalization and capitalization. It was their success and not just the presidency’s. 

That shared ownership and energy continued through the two weeks, such that there was a real interest in finding an outcome that would make everyone proud. At 10:00 pm on the penultimate evening, the COP28 President announced that he and his team had no intention of sleeping until we had jointly found a way forward; ministers and delegates rolled up their sleeves with us and joined consultations through the night. I remember meeting with a European vice president and a Latin American minister who came forward with a bridging proposal at 1:30 am, transcending geographies and interests for an outcome for people, planet and prosperity. 

The GST and the UAE Consensus are the fruit of that global movement, including outcomes across the negotiated agenda listed below. This was further boosted by significant action agenda outcomes, including the mobilization of more than US$85 billion for climate and sustainable development. 

Mitigation 

The GST showed that the international community was far off-track in achieving the temperature and resilience goals of the Paris Agreement. Parties responded with a roadmap that included unprecedented calls to cap peak emissions by 2025, addressing both supply and demand-side challenges in energy systems, while aiming to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency and halt deforestation, among others. This was a political signal that the global community was willing to face the facts and align on a shared direction. 

Adaptation 

The need for a clear response for those already facing climate impacts is at the core of the Paris Global Goal on Adaptation. The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience was a breakthrough, establishing a comprehensive approach across food, water, cities and health. 

This continued through the UAE-Belém Work Programme, a crucial two-year process to develop a set of globally applicable indicators to track progress on adaptation, set to conclude in November 2025. 

Means of implementation 

COP28 UAE saw the historic operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund coupled with pledges of over US$680 million. For decades, this issue had been a source of deep contention, a symbol of the gap in trust between developed and developing nations. By making the fund a reality, the COP28 Presidency demonstrated that action could, and would, take precedence over debate. 

COP28 also launched the Just Transition Work Programme, designed to drive the equitable implementation of all pillars of climate action. It is a humancentric approach, linking climate action to broader sustainable development, ensuring that long-term plans work hand-in-hand with social and economic priorities, leaving no one behind. 

While each COP is a crucial part of a larger, continuous narrative, there is a golden thread that connects COP28, 29 and 30. This is the “Roadmap to Mission 1.5,” a blueprint for keeping the 1.5°C temperature Paris goal within reach and achieving global resilience, guided by the first-ever COP Presidencies Troika (UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil), established at COP28 UAE with a mandate to boost ambition and implementation. 

COP 29 - The Baku Climate Unity Pact and the art of implementation 

The transition from the ambitious goals of COP28 to the critical implementation of COP29 was driven by the understanding that without a robust financing plan, the targets set in the UAE would remain just words. In Baku, the parties took on the task of agreeing a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for climate finance, a successor to the earlier US$100 billion target. 

For many years, the lack of delivery on climate finance has been a major source of frustration. Promises were made but rarely kept and developing countries correctly pointed out that they could not be expected to transition their economies and adapt to climate impacts without adequate support. 

Through the Baku Climate Unity Pact the parties agreed to channel at least US$300 billion annually to developing countries by 2035, with an overall goal to mobilize US$1.3 trillion. While this outcome was significant given the geopolitical dynamics, developing countries remain concerned about the gap between this target and actual needs – estimated to be US$5.9 trillion by the 2021 Needs Determination Report by the UNFCCC’s Standing Committee on Finance. 

The corresponding lack of ambition on mitigation was also of concern to parties and partners, while it was understood that there can be no ambition without finance. Finance is the lifeblood of climate action, the necessary means to deliver on both mitigation and adaptation. 

The role of international financial institutions 

The call to mobilize climate finance at scale requires a coordinated response from all stakeholders, including international financial institutions (IFIs). The Sharm El- Sheikh Implementation Plan from COP27 under the Egyptian Presidency was the first to call on IFIs to step up efforts. The OPEC Fund has heeded this call, adopting its first Climate Action Plan in 2022, which set targets that cover a comprehensive approach to climate mitigation, adaptation, food security and nature-based solutions. Upon reaching these initial targets, in September 2025, the OPEC Fund Governing Board approved new climate financing targets to achieve 60 percent alignment with the Paris Agreement by 2027 and 80 percent by 2030, excluding trade finance (see page 13). More information can be found in the annual OPEC Fund Climate Finance Report. 

COP30 - The road to Belém and Just Transitions 

The golden thread now leads to COP30 in the Amazonian city of Belém. This is where countries will know whether we are on track to maintaining the 1.5°C and global resilience targets. The stakes are high and the political environment is difficult, particularly with the withdrawal of the world’s largest emitter – the USA – from the Paris Agreement, effective January 2026. 

The Brazilian COP30 Presidency has called for global leadership and solidarity to rise to the occasion and deliver through mutirão, a local term that refers to collective effort. The global spirit and joint ownership of the process is more important than ever. In some ways the “return to Brazil” (see next story) invites us to review our common purpose as delivery is not on track. 

An emerging focus area for Belém is Just Transitions. Parties, faced with the challenges of implementation, are prioritizing this discussion to ensure that the shift to a low-carbon economy creates opportunities for decent work, protects local communities and is aligned with social and economic priorities. This focus resonates deeply with the work started at COP28. It is a pragmatic approach that recognizes that real climate action happens on the ground, in communities and in economies. 

COP30 will be the moment to deliver on all three pillars of the GST. The emphasis on nature links well with adaptation outcomes, whereby the UAE-Belém Work Programme will bring forward measurable and implementable indicators, enabling enhanced adaptation action. This moves the focus onto communities and ecosystems that are already facing climate impacts and makes adaptation a verifiable and fundable pillar of climate action. 

Ultimately, means of implementation will, as always, be a precondition for success. Through the Action Agenda and negotiations combined, there needs to be a resounding demonstration of continued commitment by donor countries, IFIs, the private sector and the international community to mobilize the US$1.3 trillion ahead of 2035, as set out in Baku. 

The road from one COP to the next is often long and winding – but the connections are clear for all to see. The last three were a testament to a stubborn optimism: that global climate diplomacy, despite all its imperfections, continues to be the indispensable framework for a shared future on a still livable planet.