How AI is set to impact SIDS & LLDCs

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing the world, profoundly and at breakneck speed: After the US research organization OpenAI released ChatGPT in November 2022 it reached 1 million users in five days and 100 million users in two months, making it the fastest growing internet app ever. 

Six months later it was available in more than 160 countries around the world and, among others, fueled a stock market boom with tech companies cementing their leading position in the global economy. 

But what about the billions of people at the so-called base of the pyramid? What will AI mean for emerging economies, particularly far-flung Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDCs)? UN Secretary-General António Guterres told the Security Council in September 2023: “The spread and reach of this new technology in all its forms are utterly unprecedented. It has the potential to turbocharge global development, from monitoring the climate crisis to breakthroughs in medical research. But even its own designers have no idea where their stunning technological breakthrough may lead.” 

To assess the possible impact of AI, this new technology should be weighed across various sectors. Starting with healthcare, think back just two years when the entire world was in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the main lessons was that the lack of reliable data delayed the development and rollout of effective responses. Today it is clear that advanced data handling can improve continuity of healthcare and help create massive datasets to verify treatments in a more timely manner. 

For agriculture, AI-based data observatories can help governments better predict food production trends and incentives. New insights can improve crop storage, reduce waste and spoilage, and provide better information about what types of interventions are needed by farmers in remote areas. It can also identify regions in distress so that assistance can be (re)directed as soon as possible. Early detection can also help prevent smallholder families from leaving their land and abandoning agricultural production altogether – thus deepening food insecurity. AI support would be particularly beneficial for LLDCs like Bolivia, which over the last few months endured see-sawing droughts and floods that left over half the population in a state of chronic hunger (see page 38). 

For tourism and fisheries – two major sectors for SIDS like the Seychelles and the Maldives (see page 18) – AI is already making a difference. The Simon Institute for Longterm Governance, a Swiss think tank, wrote in a July 2023 policy brief: “AI monitoring systems, using satellite imagery and sensors, can improve SIDS’ fisheries management and conservation efforts. For example, the FishGuard Initiative uses AI to monitor large marine areas and detect illegal fishing vessels operating in SIDS’ Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).” Putting that in context, the Seychelles monitors its EEZ of 1.3 million km2 by using AI to scan feeds from two flying “guard” drones. Meanwhile, to protect and streamline the tourism sector, “AI’s analytical capabilities enable the analysis of data on energy consumption, waste management, and resource usage, paving the way for a more efficient and sustainable tourism industry,” says the Simon Institute. 

In climate and energy, micro island states in the Pacific are punching above their weight. A 2019 report from the UN International Telecommunication Union underscored how: “In Palau, AI is being used to analyze location data such as weather, energy costs and physical characteristics to accelerate transition from expensive and polluting diesel fuel to renewable energy.” Weighing the risks, reaping the benefits The broader impact of AI on the global economy can hardly be overstated. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), about 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies may be impacted by AI, whereas in emerging markets and low-income countries, AI exposure is expected to be 40 percent and 26 percent, respectively. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva wrote in January 2024: “Advanced economies face greater risks from AI – but also more opportunities to leverage its benefits – compared with emerging markets and developing economies.” 

A recent survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF), carried out among more than 60 economists worldwide, highlighted a similar concern: AI is predicted to affect the world economy unequally. Overall, 94 percent of the economists surveyed expect AI to radically boost productivity in high-income economies over the next five years, but just 53 percent predict a similar effect for low-income economies. Almost six out of 10 (57 percent) expect these conditions to increase inequality and widen the north-south divide over the next three years. The WEF warns: “While technological advances may give new impetus to global productivity, policies that enhance good-quality growth are needed to revive global momentum and balance the impact across the income groups.” 

These are just a few examples of how AI can improve development and inform decision-making. Put simply, AI provides cutting-edge analytical and policy tools that can help the international community respond more effectively – or perhaps even prevent – future crises. For less-resilient countries like SIDS and LLDCs that could mean the difference between life and death for billions of people amid the deepening climate crisis.