Baku: The City of Winds Feels the Heat

The cold northern wind khazri and the warm southern wind gilava have earned Azerbaijan’s capital Baku the nickname “City of Winds”. Today, the city would need nothing more than a refreshing, cooling breeze, because temperatures are rising dramatically: A record temperature of 43°C was set in July. 

This record is likely to be broken at some point. Under high-emission scenarios, in other words the worse-case ones, the country’s temperatures could soar by up to 4.7°C above historical levels by the 2090s, with the most significant warming occurring between July and September. In those months, the average temperatures could surge even further, reaching 6°C beyond pre-industrial levels. 

“We are a vulnerable country,” said Azerbaijan’s Minister of Ecology and president-designate of the UN Climate Change Conference COP29 Mukhtar Babayev in March this year. From 1960 to 1990, during the summer months of June through August, Baku experienced 86 days with temperatures of 35°C or higher. The next 30-year period was even worse. From 1991 to 2020, that number surged to an alarming 365 days – nearly four times the previous count. Making Baku particularly vulnerable is the urban heat island effect. As densely built areas with dark surfaces heat up faster, they retain warmth longer. 

While the country is increasingly impacted by climate change, it is also largely dependent on one of its main drivers: the world’s first oil refinery was built in Baku in 1859. By the early 1900s, the city’s oil fields supplied half of the world’s oil. At the time, the saying was that if you dropped a stone in Baku, oil would be gushing from the ground. Today, oil and gas make up 90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports and generate 60 percent of the government’s budget, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). 

The authorities are promising to act and they are clear that there is no time to lose. As the heat intensifies, who bears the greatest burden? 

Heatwaves expose and exacerbate existing inequalities, with the impacts of climate change disproportionately affecting those least able to adapt. Children and adolescents, women, the elderly, people with disabilities, individuals with chronic illnesses and eco-migrants are identified as particularly vulnerable groups, says the government. 

The rise in temperatures poses significant threats to public health and labor productivity. In urban areas such as Baku the elevated risk of heat-related illnesses and mortality is a growing concern. A heat increase may also reverse past successes in eradicating diseases like malaria, warns Azerbaijan’s Red Crescent Society. Higher temperatures acutely affect older populations (those over 65), people with pre-existing medical conditions and individuals with limited access to energy and technologies like air conditioning. Across the board, there is also a heightened risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, along with existing mental health challenges. 

In addition to public health concerns, rising temperatures directly impact labor productivity. The International Labour Organization (ILO) reports that productivity begins to decline at temperatures above 24-26°C. At 33–34°C, workers performing moderate-intensity tasks can lose up to 50 percent of their capacity. While all sectors are affected, certain occupations are at greater risk due to higher physical demands or outdoor work environments. These include jobs in environmental goods and services (such as natural resource management), construction, waste management, emergency repair, transportation, tourism, sports and agriculture. 

In response to these challenges, Azerbaijan has revised its Paris Agreement commitments. These Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) now pledge a 40 percent emission reduction by 2050, compared to 1990 levels. Achieving this target will rely on international collaboration, providing essential resources such as financing, technology transfer and capacity building. 

At the same time the country has no intention to reduce its fossil fuel production. “Europe needs more gas,” Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said earlier this year. While he emphasized his country’s efforts to diversify the energy mix towards renewables, he also remarked: “Having oil and gas deposits is not our fault.” 

A National Adaptation Plan was rolled out in 2021. Funded by the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the plan aims to improve the country’s resilience to climate change by advancing adaptation actions in three priority sectors: water, agriculture and coastal areas. It focuses on strengthening institutional, technical and financial capacities in support of government efforts to ensure that medium-to-long-term climate adaptation needs are integrated into Azerbaijan’s national development planning. 

Assistance from the European Union through the EU4Climate project provides support to the country’s climate efforts. The project helps Azerbaijan update and enhance its NDCs, integrates low-emission and climate-resilient actions into the national development plan and aligns climate change legislation with EU standards. 

Innovative solutions like urban greening and energy-efficient building designs are being implemented to mitigate the urban heat island effect. In recent years, the country has been actively promoting and implementing green building initiatives to reduce the carbon footprint and conserve natural resources. Urban greening strategies such as planting more trees, creating green roofs and establishing parks help cool the environment. Meanwhile, energy-efficient building designs reduce heat absorption and improve indoor cooling. 

With temperatures in Azerbaijan expected to outpace the global average, the urgency for decisive action cannot be overstated. Achieving meaningful and lasting progress will hinge on sustained international collaboration and innovative solutions. As Minister Babayev wrote in a COP29 preparation letter, only through coordinated global efforts, can we ensure a more resilient future for all. The start of the conference is also the starting line for delivery.