A Double-Edged Surfboard

Dear Reader, 

The summer holidays are upon us and despite a highly uncertain global political and economic outlook (to say nothing of the weather), tourism is expected to continue its recovery from the COVID-19 period. According to the UN’s World Tourism Barometer, over 300 million tourists travelled internationally in the first quarter of 2025 – a five percent rise on last year and three percent more than pre-pandemic 2019. 

The travel outlook remains cautiously optimistic with almost half of all experts expecting “better” or “much better” prospects for May-August 2025, according to the same survey. But the current volatility is beginning to play out: The latest survey by the European Travel Commission, an association of 36 national tourist boards, reveals a drop in long-haul travel interest. “Growing cost concerns, geopolitical instability and weakening consumer confidence are influencing consumer decisions across key markets,” the report says. 

This shift will also have an impact on many countries of the Global South, where tourism is often a major source of income, yet also a (growing) cause for concern. Overtourism affects many small island nations, as well as countries with natural or cultural heritage. As OPEC Fund Senior Economist Angus Downie writes: “Tourism presents a significant opportunity for economic development. However, tourism also poses a number of economic, social and environmental challenges” (see pages 6-11). 

The answer is not to throw out the bather with the pool water (so to say), but to make tourism more sustainable. The UN Environment Programme defines sustainable tourism as taking “full account of its current and future economic, social and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of visitors, the industry, the environment and host communities.” 

It clearly is “an idea whose time has come,” to quote Victor Hugo. Out of necessity: Many islands are sinking while many iconic mountains are littered with huge piles of rubbish (see pages 12-13). Out of self-awareness: As a seasonal activity tourism can provide sustained inflows only in rare cases and overdependence calls for diversification of the economy. Out of acceptance: Ecotourism, which began as a grassroots movement in the 1980s, is now firmly established in the sector and enjoying above average growth rates in a highly competitive market. 

To illustrate these developments our special feature also offers a direct comparison between two contrasting approaches to tourism: Phuket in Thailand is one of the most popular destinations in the world, drawing millions of visitors every year. By contrast, Costa Rica has positioned its tourism sector on much lower numbers, while offering high-quality ecotourism. Which does better? Without giving anything away, here is our advice: Before booking your next holiday, read this issue of the OPEC Fund Quarterly. 

We also recommend taking your personal copy of our magazine to the beach (or wherever you’ll relax this summer) for a good read on many other interesting subjects. Did you, for example, know about the impact of climate change on a traditional spicy meal? As the world gets hotter new research shows that chili peppers are losing their heat (see pages 14-17). 

It’s not just tourists who are on the move; climate change is also a significant driver of migration. Climate migration linked to deteriorating traditional living environments is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) speaks of 200 million environmental migrants by 2050. 

Migration can be a huge challenge, first and foremost for people forced from their homes, but also for host communities. Decades of neglect and disconnection have deeply poisoned the well. Avoiding permanent toxic damage requires the right policies and investments, argues Othman Belbeisi, IOM Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa (see pages 18-21). 

As we are honored to welcome more and more external contributors to our publication, we would like to emphasize that the views and opinions expressed are solely the authors’ and don’t reflect the opinions or beliefs of the OPEC Fund. 

The current crises and challenges the Global South is facing were also the focus of the fourth OPEC Fund Development Forum in Vienna in mid- June. Under the banner A Transition that Empowers Our Tomorrow, the Forum and side events saw major announcements like the launch of an OPEC Fund Trade Finance initiative, a US$2 billion pledge by the Arab Coordination Group in support of sustainable development in Mauritania and the agreement on more than US$1 billion in new development financing. 

This ambitious agenda sets the tone for a busy autumn period with the next UN Climate Change Conference COP30 only one of many highlights. 

We wish you a beautiful summer and an interesting read.