A Change of Climate Perspective

Even if world leaders somehow get us to the “best case scenario” during the unfolding climate crisis, humans will still endure a more dramatic change to the planet in such a short span of time – perhaps one or two generations – than they ever have. 

Some of those changes are well-known and well-modeled: How will sea levels rise if ice shelves melt? How will certain regions cope with stronger and more frequent extreme weather events? What might migration patterns look like if people move en masse to more temperate areas? 

Other changes may appear less dramatic, but will nonetheless leave their mark on who we are, how we eat and what we do for fun in minor and not-so-minor ways. 

Take me out to the ballgame 

For a large chunk of the world, summertime means baseball. Fans flock to ballparks across North America, Latin America and East Asia to catch some sun and perhaps a fly ball. 

No league is bigger to the game than Major League Baseball (MLB), where 30 teams from the USA and Canada field rosters of players from nearly every continent. Yet watching these teams in their natural habitats, open-air stadiums, may be getting more and more uncomfortable as rising temperatures make outdoor games less desirable to attend and less profitable for the bottom line. 

That’s the finding from a study published earlier this year in American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. A trio of researchers examined five decades of weather reports from MLB games and how they correlate with fan attendance and club revenue. 

The study, “The Willingness to Pay for a Cooler Day: Evidence from 50 Years of Major League Baseball Games”, takes a unique look at one effect of the warming world – not one of catastrophic upheaval but one of discomfort. After all, fans are less likely to attend games in extremely hot or cold temperatures (although the latter is far less frequent due to the MLB’s spring-to-fall schedule). 

The researchers estimate a US$1.53 utility loss per hour of exposure to high temperatures. Given all the hours played in so many locations, this translates to what the study calls “nontrivial aggregate welfare effects” – or in layman’s terms, a significant hit to revenue every time your team plays in high temperatures. 

Perhaps that’s why you see more and more baseball stadiums built with retractable roofs, which can be opened or closed to keep the temperature pleasant for the tens of thousands of fans that (usually) pack the stadiums. Of the 30 MLB stadiums, seven have such a feature. The newest stadium, planned for Las Vegas, will be completely enclosed. 

In the coming decades, climate will play a bigger role in how and where we watch sports. This season, Florida’s Tampa Bay Rays play in a much smaller minor league stadium, while their MLB ballpark is being repaired following extensive damage from 2024’s Hurricane Milton. 

Football (soccer) fans will recall the 2022 World Cup’s move from summer to late in the year to dodge host Qatar’s searingly hot temperatures, as well as the giant air conditioning units keeping players and fans cool during an unprecedently hot tournament. 

Such seems to be the fate of many global outdoor sports: high temperatures will not go away anytime soon and anyone wishing to play ball will have to adapt to the new normal of extreme temperatures. 

Chillier chilies 

It will come as no surprise that a warmer world will make it harder to reliably grow crops, especially in agricultural areas that must now contend with more extreme natural disasters like floods and droughts. What might be a surprise is that those crops won’t be quite the same as what we had been used to. 

Bloomberg, the news and data provider, recently reported that chili peppers are losing their heat due to extreme weather in areas where the peppers are commonly grown. Not only has supply been disrupted and have prices gone up, but the spiciness of chilis has gone down. According to the article, potent peppers thrive in hotter and drier conditions. More intense rainfall and extra moisture dilute the heat-producing alkaloids that make particular types of chilis so sought after in cuisines around the world. 

This is not the first time spicy foods have made global news. In 2022, Huy Fong Foods temporarily halted production of their popular spicy red Sriracha sauce, commonly sold in a red plastic bottle emblazoned with a rooster on its label. The culprit turned out to be a chili shortage caused by a drought in Mexico. Last year, another hiccup delayed production because the chilis were not ripe enough to harvest. Supply chain issues are not the only problem in the chili market, as you cannot simply swap one type for another. Needless to say, everyone from chefs to Sriracha sauce makers are trying to capture a particular taste and temperature. Losing that ability isn’t a minor thing either, it marks a fundamental change to food culture itself. 

Along with its list of World Heritage Sites, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) also has various lists of intangible cultural heritage. Beyond centuries-old ruins or contemporary examples of important architecture, intangible cultural heritage can include areas as diverse as traditional silk production in Central Asia, shrimp fishing on horseback in Belgium and traditional music and dance in Côte d’Ivoire. Food also features on UNESCO’s Intangible Cultural Heritage Lists, such as the cuisine from the Mexican state of Michoacán, which relies on chili peppers in order to deliver that distinctive kick – without which, the taste that has existed for centuries may disappear forever. 

“It sounds terrible, but once these peppers are gone, you cannot recreate their original taste,” agronomist Jorge Berny told Bloomberg. “You can replace them with something else, but it’s not the same.” 

High temperatures, low birthrates 

Predicting an optimal health policy in a warming world is about as tricky as predicting the weather itself, though surprisingly the two go hand in hand. 

A new study in the journal Weather, Climate, and Society finds a link between extreme temperatures and birth weight in South Korea. A researcher from the Korea Institute of Public Finance estimated that exposure to temperatures above 30°C (85°F) in the second trimester lowers birth weight by 0.8 percent in the country. According to the study, this negative effect was more apparent in the lowest quarter household income group than that of the highest quarter. 

This finding matters for a number of reasons. First, the link between higher temperatures and lower birth rates is corroborated by similar studies in many different countries. Compared to the USA, China and various Andean nations, South Korea has a higher average temperature during the hottest month of the year. Therefore, as temperatures rise, South Korea may offer a reference point for other countries that are showing similar temperature patterns. 

Second, one can presumably infer that lower-income mothers have fewer opportunities to avoid high temperatures compared to the higher income group, meaning that although healthcare services are readily available in South Korea, poor people are still more susceptible to temperature shocks. National policies, especially in places with less advanced or accessible healthcare systems, would be wise to take income into account when designing extreme temperature care for pregnant women. 

Finally, birth rates are declining worldwide but nowhere more so than in South Korea, which already has one of the world’s lowest birth rates (in addition to one of the longest life expectancies). Generally, without large-scale immigration, an average of 2.1 babies per woman is needed to stabilize the population. South Korea’s fertility rate in 2024 was 0.75 babies per woman. The long-term effect of this is a dramatic population decline. After reaching a peak with 51.83 million in 2020, Statistics Korea estimates that by 2072 that number will shrink to 36.22 million, a loss of 30 percent. 

From community events to national cuisines to the health of the next generation, climate change is set to redefine our world in so many ways. The question now is: How can we score a home run for climate action?